EdgeLV
파산 확률 계산기
Sit down with a bankroll — what is the chance you bust before you walk away? Ten thousand Monte Carlo runs at the real payouts and commission.
Calculating…
표로 보기
| Ending range | Runs | Share |
|---|
Method
Where these numbers come from
Real payouts, hand by hand
Banker: wins 45.86% paying 0.95 (after the 5% commission), loses 44.62%, ties 9.52% and pushes. Player: wins 44.62% paying 1.00, loses 45.86%, ties push.
Why simulate instead of using a formula
The classic gambler’s-ruin formula assumes every result is ±1 unit. Banker pays only 0.95 and ties push, so the payouts are asymmetric and the formula gives the wrong answer. Simulation handles it exactly.
What counts as ruin
Not being able to place another bet. That is closer to reality than "bankroll hits zero": with 200 left and a 500 unit, you are already done.
Results move slightly
Ten thousand runs carry roughly ±0.5 percentage points of sampling error, so each run differs a little. That is inherent to the method, not a bug.